Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 129,249
2 South Dakota 124,418
3 Rhode Island 114,050
4 Utah 112,178
5 Arizona 109,115
6 Tennessee 108,358
7 Iowa 104,138
8 Wisconsin 104,043
9 Oklahoma 103,821
10 Arkansas 103,256
11 Nebraska 101,166
12 Kansas 99,271
13 Alabama 97,623
14 Indiana 96,492
15 Mississippi 95,979
16 Idaho 93,645
17 South Carolina 93,257
18 Nevada 93,210
19 Wyoming 91,723
20 Illinois 91,636
21 Montana 90,906
22 Louisiana 90,041
23 Texas 88,160
24 Georgia 88,050
25 California 87,817
26 Kentucky 87,435
27 New Mexico 85,712
28 Delaware 84,479
29 Florida 84,478
30 Minnesota 83,679
31 New Jersey 83,319
32 Missouri 82,706
33 Massachusetts 80,349
34 Ohio 79,966
35 New York 78,291
36 North Carolina 78,111
37 Alaska 76,561
38 Connecticut 74,983
39 Colorado 71,920
40 West Virginia 70,801
41 Pennsylvania 69,782
42 Virginia 63,758
43 Michigan 62,839
44 Maryland 61,061
45 District of Columbia 54,792
46 New Hampshire 51,534
47 Washington 43,392
48 Puerto Rico 40,873
49 Oregon 35,463
50 Maine 31,437
51 Vermont 21,498
52 Hawaii 18,837

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Carolina 637
2 New Jersey 441
3 Rhode Island 436
4 New York 433
5 Texas 429
6 Kentucky 423
7 Oklahoma 400
8 Virginia 394
9 North Carolina 389
10 Utah 374
11 Florida 367
12 Delaware 360
13 Kansas 359
14 Georgia 355
15 Tennessee 342
16 Massachusetts 334
17 Arkansas 304
18 Louisiana 303
19 Mississippi 300
20 New Hampshire 282
21 Alabama 272
22 Pennsylvania 269
23 Ohio 267
24 Colorado 261
25 Arizona 260
26 Connecticut 255
27 Iowa 255
28 West Virginia 253
29 South Dakota 249
30 Montana 245
31 California 241
32 Alaska 231
33 New Mexico 229
34 Indiana 226
35 Nebraska 219
36 Illinois 217
37 Nevada 207
38 Idaho 206
39 Wisconsin 202
40 Maryland 190
41 District of Columbia 183
42 Missouri 177
43 Vermont 165
44 Maine 155
45 Minnesota 153
46 Wyoming 147
47 Michigan 140
48 Washington 132
49 Oregon 129
50 North Dakota 127
51 Puerto Rico 54
52 Hawaii 50

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,521
2 New York 2,320
3 Massachusetts 2,228
4 Rhode Island 2,161
5 Mississippi 2,160
6 Connecticut 2,070
7 South Dakota 2,069
8 Arizona 2,039
9 Louisiana 1,995
10 North Dakota 1,917
11 Alabama 1,872
12 Indiana 1,799
13 Pennsylvania 1,797
14 Illinois 1,738
15 Arkansas 1,727
16 New Mexico 1,671
17 Iowa 1,655
18 Michigan 1,603
19 Tennessee 1,581
20 South Carolina 1,533
21 Nevada 1,515
22 Kansas 1,497
23 Georgia 1,435
24 Texas 1,416
25 District of Columbia 1,382
26 Florida 1,329
27 Delaware 1,303
28 Ohio 1,294
29 Missouri 1,277
30 Maryland 1,241
31 Montana 1,239
32 West Virginia 1,227
33 California 1,175
34 Wisconsin 1,157
35 Minnesota 1,140
36 Wyoming 1,117
37 Nebraska 1,090
38 Colorado 1,023
39 Idaho 1,007
40 Oklahoma 1,000
41 North Carolina 992
42 Kentucky 989
43 New Hampshire 828
44 Virginia 816
45 Washington 622
46 Puerto Rico 597
47 Utah 557
48 Oregon 500
49 Maine 478
50 Alaska 370
51 Vermont 302
52 Hawaii 298

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Ohio 95
2 Alabama 40
3 Arizona 24
4 Kansas 19
5 Delaware 16
6 Missouri 13
7 Rhode Island 13
8 South Carolina 13
9 Tennessee 13
10 California 12
11 Georgia 12
12 Texas 12
13 Massachusetts 11
14 Nevada 11
15 New Mexico 11
16 New Jersey 10
17 North Carolina 10
18 Mississippi 9
19 Pennsylvania 9
20 West Virginia 9
21 Florida 8
22 Indiana 8
23 Iowa 8
24 Kentucky 8
25 Louisiana 8
26 South Dakota 8
27 Arkansas 7
28 Connecticut 7
29 District of Columbia 7
30 New York 7
31 Oklahoma 7
32 Illinois 5
33 Maryland 4
34 Nebraska 4
35 New Hampshire 4
36 Oregon 4
37 Washington 4
38 Idaho 3
39 Michigan 3
40 Minnesota 3
41 Utah 3
42 Wisconsin 3
43 Colorado 2
44 Montana 2
45 Virginia 2
46 Hawaii 1
47 North Dakota 1
48 Puerto Rico 1
49 Vermont 1
50 Alaska 0
51 Maine 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 316,449 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 265,242 2 99
Bent Colorado 251,031 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 239,327 4 99
Lake Tennessee 236,317 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 126,014 227 92
Richland South Carolina 92,003 1275 59
York South Carolina 85,665 1595 49
Orange California 80,377 1839 41
Pierce Washington 40,612 2902 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Iron Wisconsin 6,682 3 99
Buffalo South Dakota 6,626 4 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 1,161 1921 38
Richland South Carolina 1,109 1982 36
Orange California 1,100 1991 36
York South Carolina 1,032 2090 33
Pierce Washington 560 2679 14

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons